Lots of chatter this morning about Sun trying to sell itself to IBM. This of course could have many indirect impacts. Wither Netbeans, Glassfish and even Swing? This could affect the balance of power in the JCP back toward frameworks you need to buy. On the positive side I guess we might see aspects in JDK 1.7+.
In general though I can't see a Sun under IBM being as much fun, although possibly more profitable. I do wonder if IBM will understand the consumer part of the business or just run it down, it would be a shame to see project such as JavaFX still born. (Although some would argue this is already the case)
Perhaps going forward IBM might spin of the core java stuff into a separate foundation along the line of Mozilla that other companies can support. This might be the best bet for the long term future of Java as a platform.